摘要
通过分析干旱发生与太阳黑子磁周期的关系，得出由正磁极向负磁极转变期，干旱发生的机率最高，为６４％，约２２年一大旱。结合太阳黑子磁周期，用简化分波方法对干旱作了趋势预报：１９９５年关中、陕南旱，１９９７年陕北旱，１９９８年关中旱，１９９９年陕南旱。
This paper analyses the relationship between drought occurences andsunsopt magnetic cycles thereby obtaining that the positive magnetic pole is tranformingto the negative magnetic pole. In this case,the frequency of drought occurs very often,being 64%with a big drought in 22years. In close connection with sunspot magnetic cy-cle , the simplified wave methodis used to predict drought trend. Thus ,there was adrought in Guanzhong and South Shaanxi in 1995, a drought in north Shaanxi in 1997,adrought in Guanzhong in 1998 and a drought in South Shaanxi in 1999.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第2期119-125,共7页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
关键词
干旱
趋势预报
监控
drought
sunspot magnetic cycle
tendency prediction
monitoring and control
