摘要
灰色系统理论是一种横断面宽、渗透力强的新理论,已广泛用于预测,并被证明预测精度较高。本文选用不同数据组建立的GM(1,1)模型Ⅰ和模型Ⅱ,拟合精度均达99％以上。依此两模型预测我国1994～2000年原油和天然气产量,结果表明,按现有条件发展,到2000年我国原油产量将不会超过1.62亿吨,天然气产量不会超过200亿立方米,难以满足国民经济增长的需要。为此,应采取加大投资力度,增加后备储量,利用国际石油资源,发展天然气和水电等一系列措施,缓解石油供需矛盾。
Gray systems' is an powerful new theory with broad applications. It is already in wide use as a forecasting method , and has been proven to be highly precise. It is reported that GM (1,1) Models Ⅰ and Ⅱ, set up utilizing different data, show the accuracy of the 'gray system' to be as high as 99%. The author utilizes the above two models to forecast China's oil and gas production from 1994 to 2000. Results indicate that according to current conditions and speed of development, China's production of crude oil and gas in 2000 will not exceed 162 MT and 20 BCM, insufficient to meet the demands of national economic growth. Short supply will continue to be the basic feature of the domestic oil market. In order to solve this problem, petroleum investment should be increased, potential reserves enlarged, international oil resources cultivated, and alternative energy resources developed.
出处
《国际石油经济》
1995年第1期12-15,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
