摘要
应用吉尔吉斯斯坦地震研究所介绍的空区参数法，对新疆天山地区进行分区全时空扫描计算和Ｒ值评分检验，筛选出有一定预报效能的１０个小区，确定了异常判据和预报规则。１９９３年１０月，根据Ａ１、Ａ２小区出现的空区参数异常，对１９９３年１２月１日疏附６．０级地震作出预报，预报三要素完全正确。
By using the gap parametric method introduced by Kirghistan Seismological Institute and jointing the Chinese viewpoint of earthquake prediction,the author made total time-space scanning calculation to Tianshan region of Xinjiang. Based on the examination of value R, 10small regions that had some degrees of prediction efficiency are selected when setting up the index of anomalous recognition and prediction principles.In Oct.1993,we put forward a predictive opinion that there would be one Ms≥6.0 earthquake occurring in small region A, and A2 from Oct.1993 to Mar.1994,according to the anomaly of gap parameters in region A1 and A2.The coming earthquake (Ms=6.0) occurred in small region A2 on Dec.1,1993 proves this predictive opinion is a very perfect prediction as it fitted well with the three elements of earthquakes in epicenter,magnitude and occurrence time.
出处
《内陆地震》
1995年第2期132-136,共5页
Inland Earthquake
关键词
天山
地震空区
地震频度
地震预报
空区参数法
Tianshan
Seismic gap
Seismic frequency
Earthquake prediction Gap parametric method
