摘要
通过理论分析论证，认为ＧＭ模型所反映的本质特征与水沙长期变化的累积效应是相似的，并用４种ＧＭ模型对年序列及汛期序列水沙变化趋势进行了模拟预测。
After the theoretical analysis of the greysystem model (GM) method in this paper, it is be-lieved that the feature of rainfall reflected by the GM model is similar to the accumulated efficiency of long- termwater and sediment variation. 4 GM models are used to predict the variation tendency of the flood periodicaland annual water and sediment series respectively. The results show that GM(2,1)is better than GM(1,1) and GM(1,2) in predicting water and sediment variation.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第5期1-4,共4页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
水利部黄河水沙变化研究基金
关键词
水沙序列
灰色模型
黄河
中游区
泥沙
water and sediment series, greysystem model, prediction
