摘要
以1992～2001年吉林省机械化耕、种、收作业水平的统计数据为依据,采取了平滑预测与回归预测相结合的方法,预测了2005～2015年吉林省机械化耕、种、收作业水平。模型预测结果表明,吉林省2005年耕种收综合机械化水平为42.60%,2010年将达到49.90%,2015年将达到59.36%。“十一五”和“十二五”时期吉林省机收和机播的发展速度可能会快于预测值,机耕的发展速度可能会小于预测值。
A model for quantificationally predicting the mechanization levels of mechanically tilling, planting and harvesting in Jilin province was established by the predicting ways of smoothness and regression. A prediction of the mechanization levels of mechanically tilling, planting and harvesting in Jilin province from the year 2005 to 2015 was conducted by the model based on a historical database on above levels in the same province from the year 1992 to 2001. the forecasting results show that the integrated ratio of mechanically farming, planting and harvesting will be 42.60% in 2005, 49.90% in 2010 and 59.36% in 2015 respectivelly.
出处
《农业机械学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第9期64-67,共4页
Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery
基金
吉林省科技发展计划项目(项目编号:20030612)
关键词
农业机械化
发展水平
预测
Agricultural mechanization, Developing level, Forecast
