摘要
一门学科中新的事实的发现、新的观测手段和新技术的应用都会引发新理论,从而促进这门学科一个大发展.大气科学发展的历史,就是沿上述道路前进的.近10多年来,对大气、海洋、陆面、生物和冰雪圈进行了大规模、四维的观测,获得了海量的资料.同时,组织了丰富多彩的多项国际和地区的研究计划.通过对观测资料的深入分析和研究,必将发现许多新事实和新现象.这是大气科学即将到来的一个飞跃时期的事实基础.展望未来10～20年大气科学重大发展,预估将会有多方面的重大突破.新事实和新现象将催生大气科学新理论出现;对气候系统中各种过程的深入了解,巨型计算机的发展,使得新气候环境模式将会出现;这将是一个集地球系统中物理、化学和生物学等自然过程和人类社会经济活动的综合的模拟系统;对于人类生活环境有重大影响的气候突变现象的发生发展机理的了解将会比现在前进一大步;能够发现一些气候突变的阈值和一些气候突变的前期信号;对于未来气候的稳定性、极端气候的发生、海平面升高的程度都将会有比较确切的回答;气候预测的精度也将大大提高.
Discovery of new facts and application of new technology must initiate a new theory and promote a great development in the discipline. The development history of atmospheric science also advanced along such a way. In recent decades, a mass data of observations were gathered from the large-scale and four-dimensional observations and field experiments for the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere and cryosphere. Meanwhile, many various research projects for regional and international scopes were organized and carried out. Thoughtfully analysis and investigation on observational data must discover many new evidence and new phenomena. That is the sound base for the coming overflying development of atmospheric science. Prospecting the progress of atmospheric science in the coming 10-20 years, it is expected affirmatively that there will be great breakthroughs in many aspects. New evidence and new phenomena would hasten new theory on atmospheric science. Deep understanding of the processes in climate system and development of huge computers would lead to appearance of new climate-environmental model, which is a comprehensive simulator including both physical, chemical and biological processes in the earth system and social-economic activities. The understanding of the evolution and mechanism of abrupt climate change that exert strong impact on human being environment would go forward a large step and may discover certain thresholds and pre-signals of abrupt climate change. The stability of climate change, occurrence of climatic extremes and the range of sea level rising would be given a relatively accurate answer. The skill of climate prediction would be improved substantively.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第10期1047-1052,共6页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"大气与生物圈碳交换的GCM研究"(编号:40205013)
"植被大气双向耦合区域环境集成模式系统的研制和应用"(编号:40231006)
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目"北方干旱化与人类适应"(编号:2006CB400500)资助
关键词
大气科学
全球气候观测系统
气候研究计划
大气科学飞跃发展
Atmospheric science
Global climate observational system
World climate research project
Overflying development of atmospheric science
