摘要
针对以时间为自变量的预测对象—变动性事物的变化原因,通过可拓学中物元的可拓性分析,运用物元方法进行形式化描述,进而给出变动性事物的可拓预测方法.并对预测结果的误差给出评价与修正的方法,建立起对预测对象的定性分析与定量计算有机结合的预测模型,形成了一种集科学性、直观性、准确性、普适性于一身的新型预测方法.
With Extenics, extensibility analysis of matter-element including the divergent nature, the relevant nature, the conjugate nature and the implied, the extension forecast on changing matters are proposed. The extension forecast method uses matter-element theory as description method for formalization, and focuses on the charge reason on time-changing matters, the forecast objects. It also provides an appropriate appraisal and adjustment method for the forecast error. The extension forecast method is a new forecast model that combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis closely, and integrates scientific-ness, visibility, accuracy and popularity together.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第9期109-112,共4页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
可拓预测方法
可拓性分析
预测对象
变动性事物
多维动态物元
forecast
multl-dimensional dynamic matter-element
extensibility of matterelement
changing-matter
