摘要
结合界壳理论和泛系观控理论建立了界壳的泛系观控模型,并将该模型应用于2020水平年黄河流域水资源的规划与管理中,通过对23组多维临界调控方案进行研究,定性和定量分析了黄河流域水资源多维临界调控方案的风险、比较收益、约束信息量及其之间的关系,实现了多维临界调控方案的优选和水资源的合理规划与管理.该结果表明界壳的泛系观控模型应用于黄河流域水资源的规划与管理时良好、可行,为流域水资源的规划与管理提供了新的定性与定量分析方法.
A pansystems observation-control model of periphery was established combining the periphery theory with pansystems observation-control methodology and applied to the water resources planning and management of Yellow River Basin, China, in 2020. Based on the research of 23 scenarios of multi-dimensional critical allocation, risk, gain by comparison, binding information and the relationships among them were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively and then the most optional scenanio was singled out and the reasonable planning and management of water resources was achieved. Results showed that the model operated well and was feasible when applied to water resources planning and management in Yellow River Basin. The building of the pansystems observation-control model of the periphery provides a new qualitative and quantitative tool for drainage basin water resources planning and management.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期14-19,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(G19990436).
关键词
泛系观控
界壳
黄河流域
水资源规划与管理
多维临界调控
风险分析
pansystems observation-control methodology
periphery theory
Yellow River Basin
water resources
multi-dimensional critical allocation
risk analysis
