摘要
基于经验正交函数(EOF)和奇异值分解(SVD)方法,作者对IAP9L-AGCM后报的东亚季风区1984～2003年共20年的跨季度夏季降水距平场进行回归订正,并对订正前后降水距平场与实测场间的空间相似性、强度、以及年际变化相关性进行分析.结果表明这两种订正方案均能明显提高夏季降水距平预报场与实测场间的空间相似性和年际变化相关性;而基于EOF的订正方案对强度的订正效果要优于基于SVD的订正方案.此外,在此基础上,我们进一步提出多种订正方法集合的思想.
Two correction methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） and Singular Value Decomposition （SVD） are used to verify the summer-mean precipitation anomaly over East Asian monsoon region. The extraseasonal predictions, which are forced by the observed sea surface temperature anomalies, are 20 years from 1984 to 2003 by using IAP 9L-AGCM. The pattern correlation, intensity, and the correlation of interannual variability between the corrected precipitation anomalies and the observed are compared, and the results show the pattern correlation in most years and correlation of interannual variability are significantly enhanced for both SVD-based and EOF-based methods, the intensity corrected by the EOF-based method is better than that by SVD-based method. Moreover, some ideas about the ensemble correction methods are proposed.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期658-668,共11页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目40233027
关键词
东亚季风区
跨季度气候预测
降水距平
经验正交函数
奇异值分解
集合订正
east asian monsoon region, extraseasonal prediction, precipitation, empirical orthogonal function, singular value decomposition
ensemble of the correction methods
