摘要
短期交通流预测是智能交通诱导和交通管理控制的基础,预测效果的好坏直接关系到诱导信息和控制决策的正确性.运用标准离差法确定评价指标的权重,并依据最大隶属度原则建立了二级模糊综合评判模型,评判结果可用于判断各种短期交通流预测模型的预测性能,给智能预测系统中的模型选择提供了依据.
Short-term traffic flow prediction is the basis of the road guidance and traffic management. The precision of the prediction will affect the validity of the management strategies. In this paper,a twostage fuzzy comprehensive model was presented by using fuzzy synthesis methods and according to maximum subjection degree. The model could be used to judge the reliability of the prediction model, and it＇s evaluating result can provide a criterion for model selection in the intelligent forecasting system.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2005年第6期921-924,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
交通部应用基础基金项目(批准号:200331981408)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助(批准号:2005CB724205)
关键词
交通流
短期
预测方法
模糊综合评判
traffic flow
short term
prediction method
fuzzy comprehensive assessment
