摘要
文章阐述在应用贝叶斯估计时选择共轭先验分布的指导思想。详细论述了当运行失效和需求失效的先验分布为Lognormal分布时,利用重点式转换原则,将Lognormal分布转换为Gamma分布和Beta分布的方法。该方法计算简便,易于工程应用。基于该方法,研究开发了适于核电站可靠性参数计算分析的软件。
The paper gives a description of the idea of selecting the conjugate prior distribution using Bayesian method, and makes a detailed discussion on the technique of converting the Lognormal distribution to Gamma and Beta distribution by pivot conversion when the prior distribution of running failure and demand failure are abided by Lognormal distribution, which bears the characteristics of simplicity and convenience in calculation, as well as being easy to engineering application. Furthermore, it serves as the foundation for developing the software suitable of calculating the reliability parameters for nuclear power plant.
出处
《原子能科学技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期57-60,共4页
Atomic Energy Science and Technology
关键词
贝叶斯估计
运行失效
需求失效
概率安全评价
Bayesian estimation
running failure
demand failure
probability safety assessment
