摘要
指数平滑技术是进行预测决策的有效方法.以实际数据为基础,结合重庆市近年来煤炭实际消耗量数据的特点(具线性趋势),建立了重庆市煤炭需求量的趋势型二次指数平滑模型,并研究了指数平滑模型在重庆市煤炭需求预测中的应用.结果表明,预测值与实际消耗量之间的误差很小,说明此模型可很好地应用于煤炭需求的中短期预测,为重庆市能源决策提供可靠的依据.
The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is a valid method in forecasting and decision-making. Based on the practical datas and according to the characteristic （linearity trend） of the fact coal wastage in Chongqing recently, the forecasting model of twice exponential smoothing model is set up and the model is applied to forecast the caol wastage in Chongqing. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little and the model may be well applied on the forecast of the coal wastage in Chongqing. It also shows that the decisionmaking can based on the result well.
出处
《重庆大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期110-111,116,共3页
Journal of Chongqing University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50374084)
关键词
指数平滑
煤炭需求
预测
应用
exponential smoothing
coal wastage
forecast
application
