摘要
目的对需要抗心绞痛治疗并且左心室功能代偿症状稳定的心绞痛患者建立预测全因死亡、心肌梗死和导致致残性卒中的复合危险评分。设计大型多中心临床试验数据的多变量Cox回归分析。背景西欧、以色列、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的心脏专科门诊患者。入选者7311例具有全部需要资料的患者被入选。主要结局的测量指标平均随访4.9年时间内所有原因的死亡、心肌梗死或者致残性卒中。结果1063例患者发生任何原因死亡或者持久性心肌梗死或者致残性卒中。这些复合终点的5年危险性在危险性最低的十分位患者为4%,而在危险性最高的十分位患者为35%。危险评分结合16项临床常规变量的降序排序是:年龄、左心室射血分数、吸烟、白细胞计数、糖尿病、随机血糖浓度、肌酐浓度、既往卒中病史、1周至少1次心绞痛发作、冠状动脉造影发现(如果能够获得)、降脂治疗、QT间期、收缩期血压≥150mmHg、抗心绞痛药物数量、陈旧性心肌梗死以及性别。把这个模型分别应用于任何原因所致的死亡、心肌梗死和卒中进行预测评估,所得的结果相似。危险评分似乎不能预测事件性质(39%的死亡、46%心肌梗死以及15%致残性卒中)或者冠状动脉造影或血管重建率(占29%的患者)。结论该危险评分对客观地决定稳定性心绞痛患者进一步治疗措施以减少重要预后事件发生是有帮助的。该危险评分同样可以用于将来的计划性试验。
Objective To derive a risk score for the combination of death from all causes, myocardial infarction, and disabling stroke in patients with stable symptomatic angina who require treatment for angina and have preserved left ventricular function. Design Multivariate Cox regression analysis of data from a large multicentre trial. Setting Outpatient cardiology clinics in western Europe, Israel, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Participants 7311 patients with all required data available. Main outcome measure Death from any cause or myocardial infarction or disabling stroke during a mean follow-up of 4.9 years. Results 1063 patients either died from any cause or sustained myocardial infarction or disabling stroke. The five year risk of this composite ranged from 4% for patients in the lowest tenth of risk to 35% for patients in the highest tenth. The risk score combines 16 routinely available clinical variables （ in order of decreasing contribution ） ： age, left ventricular ejection fraction, smoking, white blood cell count, diabetes, casual blood glucose concentration, creatinine concentration, previous stroke , at least one angina attack a week , coronary angiographic findings （ if available ）, lipid lowering treatment, QT interval, systolic blood pressure ≥150 mm Hg, number of drugs used for angina, previous myocardial infarction, and sex. Fitting the same model separately to all cause death, myocardial infarction, and stroke gave similar results. The risk score did not seem to predict the nature of the event （death in 39%, myocardial infarction in 46%, and disabling stroke in 15%） or the incidence of angiog^aphy or revascularisation, which occurred in 29% of patients. Conclusion This risk score is an objective aid in deciding on further management of patients with stable angina with the aim of reducing serious outcome events. The score can also be used in planning future trials.
出处
《英国医学杂志中文版》
2006年第1期16-19,共4页
The BMJ Chinese Edition
基金
德国Wuppertal市Bayer HealthcareAG公司赞助
