摘要
利用最大熵原理推导了烈度的概率密度函数、烈度超越给定值I_j的平均重现期公式和各种超越概率水平对应的烈度的平均重现期公式。作为应用的实例计算了临汾周围4级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度,绘制了未来百年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线,并和我国现行的地震危险性分析的综合概率法的计算结果进行了对比。
In this paper the probabilty density function of seismicity, the average return period formula of the seismic intensity excess given value Ij, and the average return period of seismic intensity corresponding to various excess probability levels are inferred by using the maximum entropy principle. The author calculated the intensity caused by the earthquakes with M≥4 occurred around Linfen area and gave the probability curve of intensity excess for Linfen area in future 100 years. Also, author made comparison of the above-mentioned data with the calculated results by using the comprehensive probability method of seismic hazard, which is prevailing in our country at present.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第2期128-134,共7页
Earthquake
关键词
地震
危险性分析
最大熵法
地震烈度
Seismic risk analysis, Maximum entropy method, Intensity excess probability curve
