摘要
本文通过建立中国入境旅游外汇收入的SARIMA模型,定量分析了SARS对中国入境旅游收入的影响程度及影响时滞,克服了采用传统“同期比”方法分析该问题时不考虑旅游业自身发展趋势的不足,以期能得到关于SARS对中国入境旅游收入影响的客观认识。
This article built a SARIMA model of China＇ s inbound tourism receipts and made a quantitative analysis of the degree time lag of the impacts of SARS on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts. This method enables to overcome the defect of traditional methods of using contemporaneous ratios by taking into consideration of the auto-developmental trends of tourism. It is expected to be able to provide objective understanding of the impacts of SARS on China＇ s inbound tourism receipts.
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
2006年第1期18-21,共4页
Tourism Science
