摘要
文章在对军事经济周期进行定性分析的基础上,运用传统的测算方法和现代波谱分析方法对军事经济周期进行了统计分析。实证分析结果显示:我国军事经济存在周期性波动的特性;军事经济运行周期最显著的是长周期,其长度为24年左右;军事经济运行呈现出收缩期长而扩张期短的特点,一般收缩期是扩张期的3倍左右时间。
In this paper, basing on the qualitative analysis of military economy cycle, we make a statistical analysis of military economy cycle by traditional calculation method and the contemporary spectrum analysis. The empirical result shows that Chinese military economy has the characteristic of periodic fluctuation, and the most obvious cycle of military economy is the long periodic fluctuation of 24 years. The military economy presents the characteristic which the shrinking time is long, yet the expanding time is short, and commonly the shrinking time is the same length as three times of the expanding time in the Chinese military economy cycle.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
2006年第2期19-22,共4页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
军事经济
周期
波谱分析
military economy
cycle
spectrum analysis
