摘要
运用灰色系统分析方法预测城市建设用地是可行的.为满足建模要求,应以城市建设用地存量为基础,采用累加方法建立生成数列.1991—2000年重庆市建设用地预测模型为X_(t+1)=115626.4538e^(+0.094382941t)-104572.0538,平均每年城市建设用地增量为1727.88ha,预测结果符合该市土地利用总体规划控制目标.
It is available to predict the urban building-land by the analytical method of gray system. In order to form the Predicting model, the preservative area of the urban building -land is put as the basis on which the growing line is formed by summation. In Chongqing City, the predicting model of urban building-land, from 1991 to 2000, is that X(1)(t+1)= 115626. 4538e + 0.094382941t-104572. 0538, and the mean growing area of urban building-land is 1728.88ha in one year. This predictive result accords completely with the controlling aim of the land use planning of Chongqing City.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
1996年第3期10-15,共6页
Economic Geography
