摘要
运用格兰杰因果关系检验模型和广义差分回归的计量经济学分析方法,对甘肃对外贸易与经济增长进行实证研究,得出的主要结论是:甘肃对外贸易与GDP之间存在着单向因果关系,对外贸易是GDP的格兰杰原因,但是甘肃省GDP和进出口总额之间不存在显著的线性关系。也就是说甘肃省进出口是GDP增长的原因,但是对拉动GDP的增长没有显著效应。
Using econometric analysis methods such as Granger Causality Test and generalized different regression, the paper makes an empirical analysis of economic growth and foreign trade turnover of Gansu Province. The conclusions are as follows： there is one-way causality relation between GDP and foreign trade turnover, foreign trade turnover Granger Cause GDP, but there is no obvious liner relationship between the total IMP/EXP and GDP of Gansu Province. In other words, the IMP/EXP for the growth in Gansu Province is a reason for the growth in GDP, but the effect of the IMP/EXP is not remarkable.
出处
《兰州商学院学报》
2006年第1期76-80,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College
关键词
甘肃
对外贸易
经济增长
Gansu
foreign trade
economic growth
