摘要
AIM： To discuss the relationship between onset of peptic ulcer （PU） and meteorological factors （MFs）. METHODS： A total of 24 252 patients were found with active PU in 104 121 samples of gastroscoic examination from 17 hospitals in Nanning from 1992 to 1997. The detectable rate of PU （DRPU） was calculated every month, every ten days and every five days. An analysis of DRPU and MFs was made in the same period of the year. A forecast model based on MFs of the previous month was established. The real and forecast values were tested and verified. RESULTS： During the 6 years, the DRPU from November to April was 24.4 -28.8%. The peak value （28.8%） was in January. The DRPU from May to October was 20.0 -22.6%, with its low peak （20.0%） in June. The DRPU decreased from winter and spring to summer and autumn （P 〈 0.005）. The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average temperature value was -0.8704, -0.6624, -0.5384 for one month, ten days, five days respectively （P 〈 0.01）. The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average highest temperature value was -0.8000, -0.6470,-0.5167 respectively （P 〈0.01）. The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average lowest temperature value was -0.8091, -0.6617, -0.5384 respectively （P 〈0.01）. The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average dew point temperature was -0.7812, -0.6246, -0.4936 respectively （P 〈0.01）. The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average air pressure value was 0.7320, 0.5777, 0.4579 respectively （P 〈0.01）. The average temperature, average highest and lowest temperature, average air pressure and average dew point temperature value of the previous month, ten days and five days could forecast the onset of PU, with its real and forecast values corresponding to 71.8%, 67.9% and 66.6% respectively. CONCLUSION： DRPU is closely related with the average temperature, average highest and lowest temperature, average air pressure and average dew point temperature of each month, every ten days and every five days for the same period. When MFs are changed, the human body produces a series of stress actions. A long-term and median-term based medical meteorological forecast of the onset of PU can be made more accurately according to this.
瞄准：讨论在消化性溃疡(PU ) 和气象学的因素(MF ) 的发作之间的关系。方法：24,252 个病人的一个总数从 1992 ～ 1997 在南宁从 17 所医院在胃镜检查的 104,121 件样品与活跃 PU 被发现。PU (DRPU ) 的可检测的率每个月，每十天和每五天被计算。DRPU 和 MF 的分析在一年的一样的时期被做。一个预报模型基于以前的月的 MF 被建立。真实并且预报价值被测试并且验证。结果：在 6 年期间，到 4 月的从 11 月的 DRPU 是 24.4 -28.8% 。山峰价值(28.8%) 在 1 月。到 10 月的从 5 月的 DRPU 是 20.0-22.6% ，与它在 6 月的低山峰(20.0%) 。DRPU 从冬季和春天减少了到夏天和秋天(P<0.005 ) 。在 DRPU 和平均温度价值之间的相关系数是 -0.8704,-0.6624,-0.5384 一个月，十天，五天分别地(P<0.01 ) 。在 DRPU 和平均最高的温度价值之间的相关系数分别地是 -0.8000,-0.6470,-0.5167 (P<0.01 ) 。在 DRPU 和平均最低温度价值之间的相关系数分别地是 -0.8091,-0.6617,-0.5384 (P<0.01 ) 。在 DRPU 和平均露点温度之间的相关系数分别地是 -0.7812,-0.6246,-0.4936 (P<0.01 ) 。在 DRPU 和平均气压价值之间的相关系数是 0.7320， 0.5777， 0.4579 分别地(P<0.01 ) 。平均温度，平均最高、最低的温度，平均气压和以前的月，十天和五天的平均露点温度价值能预报 PU 的发作，与它的真实并且相应于 71.8% ， 67.9% 和 66.6% 的预报价值分别地。结论：DRPU 仔细为一样的时期与平均温度，平均最高、最低的温度，平均气压和每个月，每十天和每五天的平均露点温度被联系。当 MF 被改变时，人的身体生产 PU 的发作的长期、中部术语的基于的医药气象学的预报能根据这更精确地被做的一系列压力 actions.A。
基金
Supported by Guangxi Science and Technology Development Program, No. 9920025
