摘要
分析了用电量、电力负荷与气温的关系,对武汉市2002～2004年日用电量、电力负荷与日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温进行对比分析,计算出日用电量、最高负荷与气温之间一系列相关关系,其中夏季一般大于0.8,冬季一般低于-0.3;通过回归分析建立夏季用电量和用电负荷预测模型,利用气温预报,可实现对用电量和电力负荷的预测,对2004年实际结果进行回代检验,预测精度超过90%。
In this paper,the relation between the electricity consumption,the load and temperature is analysed.By carrying on the contrast analysis of the daily electric consumption ,the power load with the daily average temperature, the highest temperature, the lowest temperature in wuhan city from 2002 to 2004,we have worked out a series of correlativity between electric power,the power load and the temperature, the result shows the summer＇s surpasses 0.8,the winter＇s below minus 0.3;Through the regression analysis the electricity consumption and load forecast model in summer is established,and by the forecast of temperature, the electricity consumption and the load can be predicted. The forecast precision surpasses 90 % in 2004.
出处
《华中电力》
2006年第2期4-7,30,共5页
Central China Electric Power
关键词
用电量
电力负荷
气温
预测模型
electricity consumption
power load
air temperature
forecast model
