摘要
以西方生育率变动理论为依据,利用中国第五次人口普查的省区截面数据,采用路径分析法对影响中国生育率的非政策因素进行量化分析。目前对生育率直接效应最大的非政策因素是社会经济发展水平,妇女的受教育状况次之,避孕节育对生育率的影响已经减弱;同时还发现社会经济发展水平主要是直接或通过教育因素间接对综合生育率产生影响,而教育对综合生育率的影响除了直接或通过避孕节育间接发生作用外,还有一些影响是通过模型以外的其他要素来发生作用的。
This research analyzes relationships between Non-political factors and fertility through path analysis on the basis of the West fertility transition theory and the frith census data of China＇ s 31 provinces/administrative. Path model resulted that socio - economic development and gender education had become significant by 2000, but the direct effects through family planning behavior on fertility rate decreased. It was also found that socio - conomic development effect on fertility rate through direct effect and indirect effect via family planning behavior. Gender education effects on fertility through other factors , excluding direct effect and indirect effect via family planning behavior.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第2期3-7,共5页
Population Journal
关键词
非政策因素
总和生育率
路径分析法
non- political factors ,total fertility rate, path analysis
