摘要
针对浙江暴雨,通过对40年浙江历史暴雨的天气形势分类研究,建立了暴雨的相似预报方法。通过对近10年大暴雨个例的诊断分析,得到了大暴雨出现的流场及物理量分布特征。对大量历史暴雨的物理量诊断分析,得到两个诊断预报的物理量。引进美国MM5中尺度数值模式并进行本地化研究,建立适用于浙江的中尺度雨量数值预报模式。通过对大量历史暴雨的卫星、雷达与短时雨量的统计研究,建立了暴雨的短时雨量估算方法。经2003、2004年试用,预报效果较好。
Based on the 40-year history data, the synoptic situations of rainstorm in Zhejiang Province are distributed into different categories. By the category study, we set up a Similar Prediction Method in Zhejiang Province. The fluid field and distribution characters of heavy rainfall are also obtained through diagnosis analysis of each heavy rainfall process in recent 10 years. We gain two useful physical diagnostic variables through the diagnosis analysis of plenty of historical rainstorm. The mesoscale model MM5 has been introduced and localized to set up a mesoscale precipitation forecast model for Zhejiang Province. Based on the statistic analysis between short-time rainfall and the data from the weather satellite and radars during rainstorm process, we have developed a objective prediction technique for short-time（0-6hour） precipitation forecast. We try to apply this method in the plum rain period in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2004 and get good results.
出处
《科技通报》
2006年第3期309-314,318,共7页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省科技厅重点项目"浙江省暴雨预报服务系统研究"(011103422)
"浙江省灾害性天气预警预测新技术研究"(2003c23021)
关键词
大气科学
暴雨
预报技术
MM5
天气气候
卫星
雷达
atmospheric sciences
rainstorm
Prediction Technique
MM5
Synoptic climate
satellite
radar
