摘要
利用1980—2001年NCEP和TBB资料,采用逐例与合成分析相结合的方法,分析了夏季风影响期间广西大范围暴雨发生前各层天气系统和孟加拉湾强对流云团的配置演变,发现暴雨前孟加拉湾强对流发展和经向风加强等特征,并确立了广西大范围暴雨的高低层环流背景场和预报指标。将T213资料与NCEP资料进行线性趋势估计,建立了广西季风暴雨中期预报平台,试用效果较好。
By individual and composite analysis way, the allocation and variation regularity of various level synoptic systems and convective cloud clusters over the Bay of Bengal before Guangxi heavy rain are investigated based on NCEP and TBB data. The characteristics of the developing convective cloud clusters and the increasing meridional wind over the Bay of Bengal are found. A mid-range forecast system of the summer monsoon heavy rain in Guangxi is developed.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期110-115,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
天气系统
环流背景
线性趋势
预报平台
synoptic system circulation background linear trend forecast system
