摘要
目的研究吉林西北部草原达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫预报模型.方法根据吉林西北部草原1957～2004年鼠疫监测资料,利用神经网络方法,提出达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫流行预测模型.结果神经网络经学习和训练后,输出的分类结果与实际值符合率达93.3%.结论模型验证结果与实际结果相符.
Objective Studding the model for forecast of plague epizootic of Citelas Dauricus. Methods Based on the collected data of 1957 to 2004 from the Northwest Prairie in Jilin Province, the nerve network model has been conducted to forecast the prevalence of epizootic plague of Citelas Dauricus. Results After training the neural network for 1000 times , verified by real data , the consistent ratio between cluster results and actural results was 93.3 %. Conclusions established forecasting model was very efficient to forecast the prevalence of epizootic plague of Citelas Dauricus.
出处
《中国地方病防治》
北大核心
2006年第3期136-138,共3页
Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases
关键词
达乌尔黄鼠
鼠疫
神经网络
预测
The Citelas Dauricus
Plague
Nerve Net work
Forecast
