摘要
通过对11个测站点30年间三大关键期降水资料的统计,分7个等级,5个标准进行动态分析,找出各关键期旱涝发生的规律。探究发生旱涝的环流背景,用最优子集回归方法建立了三大关键期降水预报方程。对长治地区三大关键期降水的定量预报作了相关研究,确定出影响降水的重要因子。
Through the statistics of the precipitation materials of eleven detecting points in three key periods of thirty years and the dynamic analysis with seven grades and five standards, this paper finds the regularities of the occurrence of the drought and flood in each key period, probes into the circulation flow background of occurring the drought and flood, establishes the three periods＇ precipitation prognostic equation by using the optimum subset regression, and makes correlated research on three key periods＇ quantitative precipitation forecasting, and determines some important factors influencing the precipitation.
出处
《科技情报开发与经济》
2006年第11期152-154,共3页
Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy
关键词
关键期
旱涝规律
降水预测
key period
regularity of drought and flood
precipitation forecasting
