摘要
介绍了Bayes不确定性推理方法，论述了装备采办所面临的风险，给出了一般的风险分析计算公式；利用Bayes不确定性推理方法对主观概率进行修正，结合装备采办的实际情况，建立了证据确定时的风险分析模型和证据不确定时的风险分析模型；利用信息传递熵和规则强度风险代价的概念对规则信息的可靠性进行了评价，通过某具体示例风险分析结果的对比，说明了该方法的实用性和有效性，为科学、合理地分析装备采办风险提供了新的思路和途径。
The paper firstly introduces the Bayes uncertain reasoning model, then discusses the risk of equipment acquisition. The general calculation formula is presented. Using the model to correct the subjective probability, the paper puts out risk analysis model of the certain proof and uncertain proof based on the reality of the processes of equipment acquisition. The paper uses transferring entropy and the risk expense of rule measure to evaluate the reliability of rule information, and contrasts the outcomes of an example to illustrate the validity of the method which is a new way for risk analysis.
出处
《装备指挥技术学院学报》
2006年第3期20-23,共4页
Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command & Technology
基金
部委级资助项目
