摘要
采用能够有效解决“小样本、贫信息”问题的灰色系统理论,在对中国大豆进口的分析基础上,依据嵌入知识的动态GM(1,1)模型对未来5年大豆进口量进行了预测和分析.模拟结果表明中国大豆进口还会增加,但是进口的增长速度会明显减低.基于本文的研究结果,提出部分政策建议.
The abrupt increasing import of soybean has concerns many scholars and policy-makers in China. As the shortage and fluctuation of available data, some common analyzing methods could not he used. Grey system is a very powerful tool to analyze undetermined problems and require smsll numbers of data to make a prediction. With the dynamic GM（1,1） model embedded knowledge, we predict the soybean import in next five years. Our results indicate that the soybean import would continue to increase in future, hut the growth rate will much lower than before. Based on our projection, we propose some comments and advice.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期141-144,共4页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金"创新优势群体"项目(70021001)
河南省教育厅自然科学基金(2006120004)
