摘要
黄河中游四库(三门峡、小浪底、陆浑和故县水库)在中下游的防洪体系中有着重要的地位,也对黄河中下游的水资源分布产生很大的影响。根据黄河中下游水库及黄河中下游防洪工程体系的运行调度规则,考虑设计洪水典型选择、洪水预报误差和水库调度滞时的不确定性影响,利用蒙托卡罗法模拟洪水过程,实现了洪水典型选择、洪水预报及调度滞时不确定性因素影响的定量转化,分别计算了前、后汛期8种汛限水位方案下的黄河中下游水库及下游的防洪风险指标值,在对各方案的风险进行比较和评价的基础上,推荐了小浪底水库、陆浑水库和故县水库前、后汛期相对合理的汛限水位方案,为定量考察水库防洪调度及下游防洪风险率、合理选择动态的汛限水位提供参考依据。
Four reservoirs, including the Sanmenxia, Xiaolangdi, Luhun and Guxian Reservoir, play important role in flood control system of midstream and downstream in the Yellow River. According to the general operation rules of these reservoirs and flood control system, the Monto-Carlo method is applied to simulate the flood hydrograph with the quantitative influences of uncertainty of design flood, flood forecast error and the lag of operation taken into account. The risk indexes of the reservoirs and the downstream reaches of the Yellow River for 8 alternatives of flood limited water levels in Xiaolangdi, Luhun and Guxian reservoirs during early stage and latter stage of flood season are calculated. On the basis of the comprehensive assessment and comparison, the reasonable scheme of limited water level for these reservoirs are suggested.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期641-648,共8页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40572150)
关键词
黄河中下游防洪体系
汛限水位
洪水调度
风险分析
risk analysis
limited water level in flood season
reservoir
midstream and downstream of Yellow River
optimal operation scheme
