摘要
利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题。目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。以公开市场操作为对象,本文研究表明,公开市场操作和货币量之间确实存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的;导致利率和公开市场操作关系不确定的主要原因是IS曲线的斜率是不确定的。同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率是不稳定的,因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。
To choose the better intermediate target of monetary policy from interest rate or monetary aggregate is a controversial issue. The research does not involve the relations between instruments of monetary policy and the possible intermediate targets. A premise hid in the research approach is that the relationship between intermediate targets and instruments of monetary policy is certain so that the intermediate targets are controllable. However, the study based on the analysis of open market operation indicates that the relation between open market operation and monetary aggregate is certain, but the certain relation does not exist between open market operation and interest rate, and the uncertain relation between open market operation and interest rate comes fi＇om the uncertainty of IS curve＇s slope. Meanwhile, the paper indicates that interest rate does not suit being used as intermediate target in China because the IS curve＇s slope is not steady.
关键词
公开市场操作
中介目标
利率
货币量
open market operation
intermediate target
interest rate
monetary aggregate
