摘要
天津市蓟县山区面积727km2,以中低山和低山丘陵地貌形态为主,在强降雨和持续降雨条件下发生泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害的可能性客观存在。历史上地质灾害已给当地造成了一定的人员伤亡及财产损失。为了加强突发性地质灾害预防工作,提高人民群众的防灾意识,天津市2004年开始开展地质灾害-气象预报预警工作,取得了一定的效果。针对天津市山区面积较小、地质灾害事件较少的特点,目前常用的地貌分析———临界降雨量模型判据法具有一定的局限性,预报成功率较低。在区域性地质灾害-气象预报预警工作的基础上,开展单点泥石流灾害气象预报预警工作非常必要。对容易发生泥石流灾害的主要沟谷,通过现场调查可以获取沟谷的形态特征参数(沟谷的高差、纵坡的坡度、沟长、流域面积等)。以临界降雨量为变量因子,对每个监测沟谷建立泥石流灾害气象预警预报模型,可以很大程度提高预报的针对性。模型需要在实践中不断检验和完善,逐步提高预报的准确率。
The mountainous area of Jixian is 727km^2 in Tianjin. In the condition of strong and continuous rain, the occurring possibilities of geo-hazards such as debris flow will increase. In order to strengthen the geo-hazards prevention and envoke the public awareness, Tianjin government started to obtained the certain effect. Because there are few carry out the geo-hazards weather forecast and early warning in 2004. It geohazard avents in small mountain area, the commonly-used landform analysis--the method of critical rainfall amount model analysis has the certain limitation and the low forecast success ratios. On the basis of the regional geo-hazards weather forecast and early warning, it is important that we develop on the single point debris flow hazards weather forecast and early warning. Aiming at the easy development on the debris flow of the mostly valley, we can obtain the shape characteristic parameter of valley difference, lengthwise grade slope, ditch length through the field investigation （valley elevation , drainage area and so on）. Taking the critical rainfall amount as variable factor, we can construct the model of debris flow hazards weather forecast and early warning for each monitor valley, which can elevate the forecast pertinence to very great degree. The model need to be improved continuously in practice so as to elevate the accuracy of the forecast gradually
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2006年第2期126-129,共4页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
关键词
蓟县山区
地质灾害
气象预报预警
单个泥石流沟谷
单点泥石流灾害气象预报
预警模型
Jixian mountainous area
geo-hazards
weather forecast
early warning model
single debris flow gully
forecast and early warning model for single debris flow gully
