摘要
对长治、沁县等11个测站1960～2000年3～8月逐月降水资料进行统计分析，根据旱月出现个数、发生月份、干旱程度、持续时间和对农业生产危害程度，将长治地区的春旱和夏旱各分6个等级，从中寻找春夏两季干旱发生的规律。利用最优子集回归方法建立了春夏两季降水预报方程，对长冶地区春夏两季降水定量预报进行了初步研究，并初步确定了影响长治地区春夏两季降水的主要因子是西北太平洋平均海温、长治县的地温等因子，2001～2004年预报准确率达87．5％。
The statistical analysis of monthly rainfall data from 11 observation stations in Southeastern Shanxi Province from March to August, 1960 to 2000 is made. The spring and summer droughts are divided into 5 grades according to the number of droughts, the months that the droughts occurred, drought extent, etc. , to study the occurrence regularities of droughts. It is found that the southeastern Shanxi Province is an area that droughts strikes frequently. The precipitation forecast equations are devised by means of the optimum subset regression method, and the forecasting results appear promising. Based on the equations, the key factor impacting rainfall in the Southeastern Shanxi Province are identified preliminarily.
出处
《气象科技》
2006年第4期426-431,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
山西省气象局开放式研究基金(SX042002)
长治市科学技术委员会"干旱与农业生产"课题共同资助
关键词
干旱
最优回归
降水预报
drought, optimum regression, precipitation forecast
