摘要
本文运用生存分析法,对东亚9国近60年钉住汇率制度的可持续性进行了实证研究。结果表明,东亚国家维持稳定的钉住汇率制度的总“生存时间”至多为51年,其影响因素主要是国内经济变量,故一国若要实现钉住汇率制度的维持与存续,需要保持相对较低的物价和利率水平,以及相对较高的货币供给增长率和国内信贷水平。
This paper researches on the duration of pegging exchange rate regime in nine countries of East Asia during 1945-2005 by survival analysis. Result shows that stable ＂survival time＂ of pegging exchange rate regime of East Asian countries is no more than thirty--one years, following the stability declines gradually, total ＂survival time＂ is no more than fifty--one year generally. ＂Hazard factors＂ which influence the ＂survival time＂ are domestic economic variants, other than foreign economic variants. Therefore, if it tries to realize the duration of pegging exchange rate regime, a country needs to keep relative lower price and interest rate level, and relative higher monetary supply rate and domestic credit level.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第5期31-34,共4页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
关键词
生存分析法
钉住汇率制度
可持续性
生存时间
Survival Analysis
Pegging Exchange Rate Regime
Duration
Survival Time
