摘要
讨论了非线性电力负荷持久性问题,并在持久性区间利用分形插值算法进行了短期负荷预测。运用分形理论中的重标极差分析方法构造了电力负荷分析模型,揭示了负荷波动变化的持久性,表现出了隐藏于随机性之后的有序性,说明负荷特性是可以延伸的。由于在持久性区间内负荷之间是紧密联系的,因此可利用分形拼贴定理与分形插值算法求取与负荷历史记录相近吸引子的迭代函数系统,进而实现高精度的日电力负荷预测。
The durability of non-linear power load is researched and short-term load forecasting is performed in durability span by fractal interpolation algorithm, By use of rescaled range analysis method in fractal theory the authors construct an analytic model of power load, reveal the durability of load fluctuation, demonstrate the orderliness concealed behind the randomness and prove that the load characteristic is extendable. Due to the close connection among power loads within durability span, so the iterated function system （IFS）, whose attractor is close to the historic records of power loads, can be calculated based on fractal collage theorem and fractal interpolation algorithm, and then daily power load forecasting with high accuracy can be implemented.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第16期84-88,共5页
Power System Technology
关键词
分形理论
持久性
负荷预测
fractal theory
durability
load forecasting
