中国城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析被引量：160

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

下载PDF

导出

摘要为探讨我国城市化与经济增长之间的相互作用和相互影响，文章依据1978-2004年的时序数据，利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法，对城市化水平与经济增长的关系进行动态计量分析。结果发现，经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因，经济增长对城市化产生较大的正向冲击效应，而城市化对经济增长的作用强度不大；城市化水平受人均GDP影响的效应逐步增强，受自身影响的效应不断减弱，而人均GDP受自身波动影响的效应不断上升，受城市化水平影响的强度逐步下降。对我国城市化与经济增长关系的深入认识，有利于各级政府在推动城市化和促进经济增长的过程中采取合理对策，避免走入误区。 This study explores the relationship between Chinese urbanization and economic growth. To this end, some econometric methods such as cointegration,Granger causality tests, IRF and variance decomposition are used to analyze the data from 1978 to 2004. The results show that economic growth is the Granger causality to urbanization in a long term. Economic growth makes great impact on urbanization, but urbanization makes little impact on economic growth. The change of urbanization is intensified by GDP per capital, but weakened by itself. The change of GDP per capital is intensified by itself, but weakened by urbanization. In the end, recommendations are discussed for governments to facilitate urbanization and economic growth.

作者李金昌程开明

机构地区浙江工商大学

出处《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第9期19-30,共12页 Journal of Finance and Economics

关键词城市化经济增长协整格兰杰因果检验脉冲响应方差分解 urbanization economic growth cointegration Granger cau sality tests IRF variance decomposition

分类号 F061.5 [经济管理—政治经济学] F290 [经济管理—国民经济]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献18

1李雪松,张莹,陈光炎.中国经济增长动力的需求分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,22(11):27-33. 被引量：25
2马薇．协整理论与应用[M]．天津：南开大学出版社，2003．
3宋元梁,肖卫东.中国城镇化发展与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,22(9):30-39. 被引量：198
4张宏霖．中国城市化与经济发展(选自《中国城市化：实证分析与对策研究》，陈甬军、陈爱民主编)[M]．厦门：厦门大学出版社，2003．
5[美]保罗·克鲁格曼．发展、地理和经济理论[M]．北京：北京大学出版社、中国人民大学出版社，2000．
6[英]H．钱纳里．发展的形式(1950～1970)[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，1988．
7[英]H．钱纳里．工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M]．上海：上海三联书店，1995．
8[美]J．№伍德里奇．计量经济学导论：现代观点[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2003．
9[美]西蒙．库兹涅茨．现代经济增长：速度、结构与扩展[M]．北京：北京经济学院出版社，1991．
10Evans A W. The pure theory of city size in an industrial economy[-J]. Urban Studies, 1972,19:49-77.

二级参考文献19

1Balassa, B. (1978), Export and Economic in Growth : Further Evidence, Journal of Devolopment Economics, 5, 181-189.
2Bardhan, P.K. (1970), Economic Growth, Development and Foreign Trade. Wiley, New York.
3Kessedes, C. (1995), Ingram G. Infrastructure's Impact on development. Lessons from WDR 1994, Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 1 (1):16-32.
4Edwards, S. (1993), Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries, Journal of Economic Literature, Sept.
5Tan, Kongyam, Friedrich Wu, Toh Munheng, etc. (2003), Singapore's Engines of Growth: A Demand - Side Perspective, working paper.
6Dickey AD, Fuller W. A. , Likeihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root[J]. Econometreca, Vol 49, No. 4, 1981.
7Engle, R.F. , 2002a, Dynamic conditional correlation : A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20,339-350.
8Zhao Yaohui, 1997, Labor Migration and Returns to Rural Education in China, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1278-1287.
9马薇.《协整理论与应用》[M].南开大学出版社,2003..
10by the Rural Economy Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, China.收入增长·就业转移·城镇化推进——农村经济发展面临的突出问题及政策选择思路[J].管理世界,1999,15(1):181-194. 被引量：17