摘要
利用Box-Jenkins方法对1950至2004年广西国内生产总值进行了分析,建立了ARIMA模型,检验结果表明该模型有较好的预测效果.并把广西全社会固定资产投资额作为回归项引入到ARIMA模型中,由此建立了ARIMAX模型,从而进一步提高了模型的预测效果.
Box-Jenkins method is used to carry on the analysis of Guangxi GDP from 1950 to 2004, and the ARIMA model is established . The examination result indicates this model has a good forecast effect. Meanwhice, the volume of investment in fixed assets of Guangxi as the regressor to the ARIMA model, is introduced, consequently building up the ARIMAX model, to further enhance the model forecast effect.
出处
《玉林师范学院学报》
2006年第3期18-22,共5页
Journal of Yulin Normal University
