摘要
对公元前780年至公元1988年中国M≥6地震进行了整体分析。发现1900年以前资料丢失严重,1900年至1917年仍有部分丢失,1918年以后资料比较完整。 将中国区域划分为台湾、大陆东部(λ≥110°E)和大陆西部(λ<110°E),发现它们1900至1988年期间M≥6地震数目的比大约为5:1:5。东部和西部在1900至1988年都表现出地震活动性高低交替的明显时段,我们对东部划分为四个时段,对西部划分为八个时段。高活动时段的标志是,地震的平均年发生率比1900至1988年的平均值高大约60％,比低活动时段的相应值高得更多,东部为高出一个数量级,西部为高出一倍以上。根据这些时段划分的延伸进行推测,今后十年或稍长时间,中国大陆东部将处在低活动时段;今后几年,中国大陆西部将处在高活动时段。
Chinese earthquakes of M≥6 during the period from B. C. 780 to A. D. 1988 were analysed as a whole. It was found that the catalogue of earthquakes is seriously incomplete before 1900 and somewhat incomplete between 1900 and 1917. The catalogue is more complete after 1918.We divided China into three parts geographically: Taiwan, eastern continent (λ≥110°E) and western continent (λ<110°E). The amount ratio of earthquakes with M≥6 for these three parts in the period 1900-1988 is approximately 5:1:5. For both eastern and western continents, there are several time intervals to display alternately high and low seismic activity in the period of 1900-1988. The period was divided into 4 intervals for the eastern continent and 8 intervals for the western continent. The criterion of high activity interval is that the average earthquake number per year in the interval is about 60% higher than that in the period 1900-1988. We infered form the division of the intervals that the eastern continent will be in a low activity interval for coming 10 of more years, and the western continent will be in a high activity interval for coming several years.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第2期1-4,共4页
Earthquake
