摘要
运用中国1978-2004年的年度数据,建立一个多变量协整与误差修正模型,对中国财政支出结构与经济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证分析,实证结果表明中国生产性财政支出、非生产性支出与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡稳定关系,并在此基础上为财政支出的调整提供一些政策依据。
Considering the eleventh five-year plan, fiscal expenditures must be made some corresponding adjustments on the direction and the quantity to coordinate the relevant measures. Using the year-data from 1978 to 2004 to establish a multivariable co-integration and error correction model, the short-term and longterm relationships between economic growth and composition of fiscal expenditure were analyzed in this paper. The results indicated that there was an equilibrium and stable relationship among the productive expenditure, unproductive expenditure and economic growth. In the long run, non-productive expenditure had a significant positive impact on economic growth. Then, on the basis of the results, some policy foundations were suggested for the adjustments of fiscal expenditures.
出处
《大连海事大学学报（社会科学版）》
2006年第3期69-72,共4页
Journal of Dalian Maritime University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(05BJY013)
关键词
中国
财政支出
结构优化
协整检验
误差修正模型
China
fiscal expenditure
the structure optimization
co-integration test
error correction model
