摘要
耕地安全是粮食安全的基础和保障。分析了改革开发以来江苏省耕地总量和人均耕地的变化趋势,运用多元线性回归模型对其2020年的耕地数量作出了预测;并对2020年全省耕地最低需求量进行了初步预测。结果表明在未来一定时期内,江苏省耕地资源供需矛盾和粮食安全问题较为突出。解决粮食安全问题的根本途径在于保护省内现有耕地资源,稳定和提高粮食综合生产能力。
The cultivated land security is the foundation and safeguard of the food security. The authors analyze the quantitative change characteristic of the cultivated land in Jiangsu Province in recent years,and forecast its quantity in 2020 with the regressive multianalysis model. The article also forecasts the minimum demand of whole Jiangsu Province for the cultivated land up to the year 2020. The contrastive analysis indicates that in the future, the contradiction between its supply and demand and its food security problem will be obvious. The basic way to solve the food security problem is to protect the existing cultivated land and to stabilize and enhance the grain synthetical productivity.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期69-71,共3页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金(70573052)
教育部博士点基金(20050307036)
关键词
江苏省
耕地资源态势
粮食安全
Jiangsu Province
current situation of cultivated land resources
food security
