摘要
年用电量的预测关系到电力系统的经济效益。通过对电力市场条件下年用电量的研究,应用混沌理论建立了在实际电量需求和可用电量共同限制作用下的年用电量模型。在不同的电量需求增长率基础上分析其混沌特性,得出产生混沌的充分条件。对不同的系统参数进行仿真分析,结果表明在供给和需求的共同作用下,年用电量可能会出现混沌行为。
The forecasting accuracy of annual electricity consumption has close relationship with the profits of electric power companies. On the basis of analyzing annual electricity consumption in market environment, a model based on chaotic theory is proposed considering the common restriction of real demand and affordable supply. The condition that leads to chaos is given after analyzing chaotic characteristics of the model under different growth rates of electric power demand. Simulations with different system parameters are performed, and the results show that annual electricity consumption may be of chaos under the common restriction of demand and supply.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期95-98,共4页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
关键词
混沌
电力市场
负荷预测
chaos
power market
load forecasting
