摘要
统计分析了1951-2005年江南地区（16站平均）汛期（6～8月）降水量、旱涝与年降水量的年际变化特征，并统计和研究了江南地区汛期降水量、旱涝对月球运动轨道参数的响应关系．结果发现，在1982～2005年期间中国江南地区汛期降水量、旱涝与年降水量对夏季月赤纬到达最北纬度的年际变化有十分显著的响应关系，相关系数（r=0．812）和显著性水平（超过0．001）都很高，相关概率为100％（24／24）．这说明在1982～2005年期间，月球运动轨道的年际变化对中国江南地区汛期降水量和旱涝有重要影响和作用．文中对这种显著影响关系的成因进行了初步探讨，从6—8月平均500hPa的11年平均大气环流图上可见，夏季最北月赤纬偏北（在25．5°N以北）的11年平均的西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期明显偏东，西风带环流比较平直，位置略偏北，江南地区缺乏充足的水汽来源致使降水偏少；而在夏季最北月赤纬偏南（在25．5°N以南）的11年平均的西太平洋副热带高压要比前者偏西约10个经度，西风环流经向度加大，南支位置略偏南，这种大气环流形势对江南地区的降水十分有利．由此可见，月亮位相的变化对中国江南地区降水和旱涝的作用是通过影响大气环流而产生的．
In this paper, it is analyzed the statistical characteristics of inter-annual change of floods/droughts in floods season （JJA） and annual precipitation amount in the southern parts of Yangtze River in China for the average of 16 stations during 1982 - 2005, and the significance relationship between floods/droughts （JJA） and annual precipitation and northemmost declination of the moon in summer that were discovered. The correlation coefficient （r） and the correlation probability （P） of anomalous between precipitation in summer （JJA） for average of 16 stations in the southern parts of Yangtze River and northemmost declination of the moon in summer during 1982 - 2005 that is very high, r = 0.812, P = 100% （24/24）, the significance level is over 0.001. This obvious correlation result proves that inter-annual variations of northernmost declination of the moon in summer have important influence on rainfall in southern parts of China. We have also investigated the causality, it shows differential at the chart of summer （JJA） mean 500 hPa for ll years （ 1992 - 2002） of rainy and floods with northernmost declination of the moon in summer is in southern 25.5~N, the west Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is partial wester ten longitude than for 1 l years average of 8 years （1984 - 1991 ） and 3 years （2003 2005） of dry and droughts with northernmost declination of the moon in summer is in northern 25.5°N, the westerly circulation of first chart is southern than second chart, the longitudinal wave at Eurasia of first chart is stronger than second chart. The circulation pattern of first chart is of benefit to rainfall of the southern parts of China. Contrary, atmospheric circulation situation of second chart without the benefit of precipitation in the southern parts of China. It illuminated that inter-change of northernmost declination of the moon in summer inference to precipitation by atmospheric circulation.
出处
《地球物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期1623-1628,共6页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(10373017)
中国气象科学研究院院长基金资助
关键词
汛期旱涝
年降水量
最北月赤纬
显著相关
中国江南
Hood/drought in rainy season, Annual precipitation, Southern parts of Yangtze River in China,Northernmost declination of the moon, Significance relationship
