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中国贸易弹性的估计及其政策启示 被引量:33

The Estimation of Trade Elasticities in China and its Policyenlightment
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摘要 本文利用向量自回归模型及其相关检验估计了中国1994-2005年贸易单性,并对中国为实现“十一五”规划提出的“国际收支基本平衡”的目标提出了一些政策建议。研究结果表明,进出口贸易需求关于汇率弹性都是缺乏弹性的,而出口需求关于国外收入和世界价格弹性的绝对值都大于2,进口的国内收入弹性稍大于1,因此,仅靠人民币汇率的升值很难缩小贸易顺差。 This paper uses vector autoregression (VAR) model and its related tests to estimate trade elasticities in China for the period 1994-2005, and give some policy suggestions to realize the goal of small deficit or surplus in the balance of payments which was put forth in "11th-5 Plan" . The research shows that the exchange rate elasticities of both import and export demand are inelastic, the absolute values of both foreign income and world price elasticities of export demand exceed 2, and the domestic income elasticity of import demand is a bit more than 1, therefore, it is difficult to lessen the trade surplus by means of only appreciating the exchange rate of RMB.
机构地区 江西财经大学
出处 《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第12期14-22,共9页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金 国家社科基金项目(03BJY007)的资助 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目<中国贸易保护成本估计的理论模型 经验分析 政策措施>(NECT-04-0619)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词 向量自回归(VAR) 贸易弹性 汇率变化 Vector Autoregression Trade Elasticity Change in Exchange Rate
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