摘要
利用贝叶斯准则,结合气候年型及作物减产率定量统计方法,就内蒙古东部农牧交错带种植决策进行了分析,得到初步结论如果气象部门预报有干旱发生,即扩大玉米种植面积,没有干旱灾害,即扩大大豆种植面积;如果气象部门预报有洪涝发生,即适当扩大大豆种植面积,没有洪涝灾害,即扩大大豆种植面积;如果气象部门预报有低温冷害发生,即适当扩大大豆种植面积,没有低温冷害灾害,即扩大大豆种植面积。经方法验证,1998、2000、2002年,若按调整最优方案种植比例调整产值可分别增加0.539亿元、0.67亿元和0.356亿元;若按调整最优方案种植比例调整产值可分别增加0.724亿元、0.664亿元和0.549亿元。贝叶斯准则方法不要求所选因子样本总体分布为正态分布,选择的因子状态可以用等级描述,因而可以较好地概括非线性或非数量的一些因子。实践表明,利用贝叶斯准则作内蒙古东部农牧交错带种植决策是可行的。
According to the Bayes Rule, climate types in various years and statistics methods, the planting decision-making on cross bedding of farming and animal husbandary in the east of Inner Mongolia Autonomons Region was analyzed, the preliminary results show ： the planting decision-making should depend on the forecast of meteorology department, maize planting area should be increased when drought occurs; soybean planting area should be increased slightly when flood occurs ; soybean planting area should be increased when no flood happens ; soybean planting area should be increased when the hazard of low temperature happens, and be increased when there is no hazard of low temperature. On test of the method： in 1998, 2000, and 2002, according to the planting propotion of the optimum adjustment-proiect Ⅰ , the production value would be increased separately by 53.9 million yuan, 67.0 million yuan and 35.6 million yuan. According to optimum adjustment-project Ⅱ , the production value would be increased separately by 72.4 million yuan, 66.4 million yuan and 54.9 million yuan. Because the Bayes Rule does not require normal distribution of chosen factor samples and the chosen factors can be described in different scales, the factors of non-linearity and non-magnitude can be well expressed. The practice indicate that the Planting Decision-making on Cross Bedding of Farming and Animal Husbandary in the East of Inner Mongolia by the Bayes Rule is feasible.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第11期30-34,共5页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
呼伦贝尔市科技攻关项目(20050105)
关键词
贝叶斯准则
农牧交错带
种植决策
Bayes Rule
Cross bedding of farming and animal husbandary
planting decision-making
