摘要
混沌与随机是本质上不同的两种特性。区分产生洪水过程系统的混沌性和随机性是进行洪水模拟和预测的基础。从洪水时间序列出发，通过非线性动力系统重构和信息提取识别其基本特征。初步结果表明，洪水时间序列具有混沌动力系统的一些特征，即存在具有较低分维值、正的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数和Ｋｏｌｏｍｏｇｏｌｏｖ熵的奇怪吸引子，从而表明看起来异常复杂的洪水现象可能是由内在的非线性动力系统演化的结果。
Chaotic and stochastic behaviors of natural phenomena are fully diffirent. It is the foundation for simulation and prediction of flood flows to distinguish the behavior of a system which will generate them from their stochastic behavior. This paper deals with the identification of these two behaviors from a time series of flood flows and based on the analysis principle of chaos. The results show that the time series of flood flows at Pinshan station are characteristic of chaotic behavior, that is, a strange attractor may exist. Such a strange attractor has fractal dimension, positive Lypunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy. Therefore, the complex phenomena of flood flows may result from the evolution of an inherent non linear dynamic system.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1996年第3期226-230,共5页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
混沌
奇怪吸引子
洪水
chaos
strange attractor
flood flows.
