摘要
本文定量分析表明,我国对外贸易进出口与城镇失业人数之间存在长期均衡关系,即进口每增长1个百分点能够引起我国城镇失业人数下降1.6个百分点;出口每增长1个百分点会导致失业人数增加1.75个百分点。但从短期来看,上期失业人数增加和上期进口增加对本期就业有一定的压力,出口则对就业的作用不显著。中国对外贸易出口拉动政策虽然在一定程度上带动了经济增长,但可能不利于中国宏观就业均衡目标的实现。
We have found that in a long term, if imports increase 1 per cent, unemployment works would decrease 1.6 per cent. If exports increase 1 per cent, unemployment works would increase 1.75 per cent. In a short term, the increase of unemployment works and imports in the previous year would lay a burden on the employment in the following year. Obviously, the export - promoting policy is not as effective as we have expected.
出处
《浙江工商大学学报》
2006年第6期55-59,共5页
Journal of Zhejiang Gongshang University
关键词
协整
对外贸易
失业
cointegration
foreign trade
unemployment
