摘要
城市燃气负荷与城市工业发展,城市人口等因素密切相关,由于传统的城市燃气负荷GM(1,1)预测模型仅与历史数据有关,预测结果并不能真实反映燃气负荷在未来的变化趋势。应用灰色GM(1,N)模型,将工业产值和城市人口两个因子引入燃气负荷预测模型,建立一个一阶3个变量的灰色GM(1,3)模型,进行预测。实例预测计算结果表明该模型能够准确预测城市燃气负荷,而且该模型考虑了影响燃气负荷的主要因素,使得预测模型和结果更为合理。
City gas load is often closely related to such factors as city′s industry development and the population. However, the traditional city gas load GM(1,1) prediction model only has something to do with historical data, the prediction results can not truly reflect the changing tendency of gas load in the future. The Grey GM(1,N) model is used to establish the GM(1,3) model with three variables in one rank by bringing the two factors, industrial output value and population, into the gas load prediction model. The calculated results of actual examples indicate that this model can make accurate prediction of city gas load. Furthermore, the main factors that influence gas load have been taken into consideration in the model, which makes the prediction model and its results more reasonable.
出处
《西南石油学院学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期100-102,共3页
Journal of Southwest Petroleum Institute
基金
四川省重点学科建设项目(SZD0416)。
