摘要
在综合前人林业经济预测模型和方法成果的基础上,研究开发了林业经济预测模型库系统。该系统有效地实现了模型的表示、生成及预测等功能,特别是多模型的灵活选择与组合,解决了多年来运用孤立模型进行预测的问题,提高了预测的效率与效果。此外,该系统的可视化界面方便了用户的使用。最后结合林业经济预测实例说明了多模型组合的应用及使用林业经济预测模型库系统进行预测的有效性。
Based on the research of forecasting models and methods of forestry economy, the forecasting model base system of forestry economy is designed, which has the function of expressing, building, checking, combining and forecasting models. And especially the forecasting model base system solves the prob- lem of using single forecasting model by flexible model choosing and combining, and it greatly improved the efficiency and effectiveness for the system users. Finally a example of timber demand forecast is provided to demonstrate the application of forecasting modal base system of forestry economy.
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2006年第5期397-400,460,共5页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家林业局林业科学技术研究基金资助项目(96-41)
关键词
模型库系统
模型组合
林业经济
预测
model base system
model combination
forestry economy
forecasting
