摘要
根据能源生产的实际领域年产量观测值带有一定的延续性而非随机性的特点,利用分形理论的基本原理,将不确定的非线性系统数量化,构造新疆能源生产领域时间序列,通过计算能源生产的分形结构特征和分维值,在无规则中找到秩序。并分析其代表的实际意义,以便更好地为能源生产方面的决策提供依据。
The traditional model method holds that the complexity of economic system information is caused by external random factors. However, in reality when we observe the annual output in the actual domain of energy production, we find that the observations more or less have some continuous nature because in the traditional method, the hypothetical conditions, such as the expected value of random disturbance being zero and the variance remaining unchanged, can seldom be fulfilled. The observations often have the feature of ＂based on random walks＂. The author, based on the fractal theory and the fact that the observation value of the annual output in the actual domain of energy production has some continuous rather than random nature, quantifies indefinite nonlinear systems, that is （1）by use of Hurst R/S analysis method, constructs the time sequence of the energy production domain of Xinjiang, calculates the constructed R/S sequence and the slope rate of double logarithm function of relevant data range length, obtains for the temporal series the Hurst index estimate and then its period length, thus proving that energy production is a long- term practice and the current energy output affects not so much the short - term energy output as it does the long- term one, and （2） based on the algorithm- introduced by Grassberge and Procaccia- that calculates directly from the temporal series the relevance dimension, constructs Ou space point vectors of different dimensions, and then calculates and obtains for the temporal series its fractal dimensions. This article, through the actual representative significance of dimension value and fractal structure characteristics of energy production, points out the directive value of fractal study in energy production, and expounds in some detail the features of self - resemblance and freedom from measurement of the output of energy production.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期748-753,共6页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于多视角的新疆区域协调发展综合研究"(70463004)的阶段性成果
关键词
分形
分维
能源生产
新疆
fractal dimension
energy production
Xinjiang
