摘要
科学准确地预测水路货运量,超前掌握水路货运量发展的趋势、特点、规律和数量,是制定航道网规划的基础。本文运用改进的GM(1,1)模型和一次指数平滑模型相结合的组合模型对水路货运量进行预测,结果表明,组合预测综合考虑了各种因素的影响,能够提高水路货运量的预测精度,为航道网规划提供了科学决策依据。
Scientifically and accurately predicting waterway freight volume, mastering the development, trend, characteristic, raw and quantity is the base of the waterway network planning. This paper use a combined model which is based on an improved GM（1,1） model and one index smooth model to predict the waterway freight volume. As the result shown, the combined model is a valuable model for waterway network planning.
出处
《交通与运输》
2006年第B12期22-24,共3页
Traffic & Transportation
