摘要
城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段。就现阶段和未来很长的一个时期加快内蒙古城市化进程不失为一条改善和恢复生态环境的有效而重要途径。城市化发展轨迹呈“S”曲线,由于受地缘、自然、政治、经济、文化、制度等多方面的影响,各地城市化过程的阶段划分的临界值(“S”曲线的拐点)有所不同。本文基于人口城市化Logistic模型原理,计算出内蒙古人口城市化“S”型曲线。经计算,内蒙古人口城市化发展的确沿着“S”型曲线演进,且是呈连续的“S”型曲线。根据预测情况看,内蒙古城市化过程的道路还很漫长,但在2010年左右城市化水平达到50%,正是发展的快速阶段。与我国相比,内蒙古城市化水平并不存在“严重滞后”的现象。
Urbanization is the indispensable stage of modernization. At present and a long period in the tuture, the acceleration of Urbanization process in Inner Mongolia is an effective and important way to improve and recover the environment. The developing track of urbanization is ＂S＂ curve. Because of the effects of geology ,nature,politics ,economy ,culture and system,the critical values of classified stage of urhanization process （the inflexions of ＂S＂ curve） are different in different regions . In this paper, based on the Logistic model of population urbanization,the ＂S＂ curve of population urbanization in Inner Mongolia is computed. Through the calculation, the population urbanization in Inner Mongolia develops along ＂S＂ curve, and the curve is continuous. According to prediction, inner Mongolia urbanization process is a long way. However, the level of urbanization reaches 50% around the period of 2010, which is just the speedy stage of development. To compare with the whole country, urbanization level in Inner Mongolia doesn＇t have ＂serious lag＂ phenomenon.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期32-36,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:40561003)
内蒙古自然科学基金重点项目联合资助
