摘要
目的探索可行的麻疹爆发高危县预测甄别方法和控制麻疹措施。方法采用以县为单位历年麻疹疫情曲线中最近一次流行峰的流行高峰间隔为基础，结合最近一次流行峰发病率，预测甄别当年可能出现爆发的高危县。当有≥2个高危县相邻时。将1～2个相夹或周边相邻的非高危县带人，以使麻疹疫苗（MV）强化免疫达到成片效应。结果在未开展MV强化免疫干预的情况下，经1998年流行间隔到期的40个县中有27个发生麻疹爆发，发生率达67．50％。由此。广西壮族自治区1999-2005年平均每年约有24个麻疹爆发高危县。并对高危县8月龄～14岁儿童进行MV强化免疫。全自治区麻疹发病率由1998年的13／10万降至2004年2．9／10万和2005年的3．23／10万。结论流行高峰间隔法预测甄别麻疹爆发高危县不但准确率较高，而且能定时定点。采取流行高峰间隔法预测甄别麻疹爆发高危县，并进行局部MV强化免疫的定点清除、提前主动干预策略和措施是经济欠发达地区控制麻疹的有效手段。
Objective Trying to find out an effective and practical identification of measles in high- risk counties. Method Analyzing the historic epidemic curves by counties and identifying measles high-risk counties with the interval of the latest outbreak curve. Result Measles outbreak rate was high to 67.50 96 during pilot year with the interval of the latest outbreak curve in 1998 without catchup immunization intervention. Thus, about 24 high-risk counties were identified annually from 1999 - 2005,and catch-up immunization was carried out for 8 months to 14 years old children. Measlesincidence was reduced from 13/100,000 in 2003 to 2.9/100,000 in 2004 and 3.23/100,000 in 2005. Conclusion Identify measles high-risk counties with historic epidemic curve interval has not only high shooting at rate,but also provide information at regular time and place, which allow us to have time to launch catch-up immunization before outbreak occurs.The method of identifying measles high-risk counties with historic epidemic curve interval is suitable and practical in developing areas of the rural and mountainous to getting measles control and finally ready to eliminate it.
出处
《中国计划免疫》
2006年第6期486-488,共3页
Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization
关键词
流行高峰间隔
麻疹爆发高危县
预测甄别
Epidemic curve interval
Measles high-risk counties
Identification
